Inthelast12yearstotalemploymentintheUnitedStatesgrewfasterthanatanytimeinthepeacetimehistoryofanycountry–from82to110millionbetween1973and1985–thatis,byafullonethird.Theentiregrowth,however,wasinmanufacturing,andespeciallyinno–blue-collarjobs…

Thistrendisthesameinalldevelopedcountries,andis,indeed,evenmorepronouncedinJapan.Itisthereforehighlyprobablethatin25yearsdevelopedcountriessuchastheUnitedStatesandJapanwillemploynolargeraproportionofthelaborforceInmanufacturingthandevelopedcountriesnowemployinfarming–atmost,10percent.TodaytheUnitedStatesemploysaround18millionpeopleinblue-collarjobsinmanufacturingindustries.By2010,thenumberislikelytobenomorethan12million.Insomemajorindustriesthedropwillbeevensharper.Itisquiteunrealistic,forinstance,toexpectthattheAmericanautomobileindustrywillemploymorethanone–thirdofitspresentblue-collarforce25yearshence,eventhoughproductionmightbe50percenthigher.

Ifacompany,anindustryoracountrydoesnotinthenextquartercenturysharplyincreasemanufacturingproductionandatthesametimesharplyreducetheblue-collarworkforce,itcannothopetoremaincompetitive–oreventoremain“developed.”Theattempttopreservesuchblue–collarjobsisactuallyaprescriptionforunemployment…

ThisisnotaconclusionthatAmericanpoliticians,laborleadersorindeedthegeneralpubliccaneasilyunderstandoraccept.WhatconfusestheissueevenmoreitthattheUnitedStatesisexperiencingseveralseparateanddifferentshiftsinthemanufacturingeconomy.Oneistheaccelerationofthesubstitutionofknowledgeandcapitalformanuallabor.Wherewespokeofmechanizationafewdecadesago,wenowspeakof“robotization“or“automation.”Thisisactuallymoreachangeinterminologythanachangeinreality.WhenHenryFordintroducedtheassemblylinein1909,hecutthenumberofman–hoursrequiredtoproduceamotorcarbysome80percentintwoorthreeyears–farmorethananyoneexpectstoresultfromeventhemostcompleterobotization.Butthereisnodoubtthatwearefacinganew,sharpaccelerationinthereplacementofmanualworkersbymachines–thatis,bytheproductsofknowledge.

1.Accordingtotheauthor,theshrinkageinthemanufacturinglaborforcedemonstrates______.

A.thedegreetowhichacountry’sproductionisrobotized

B.areductioninacountry’smanufacturingindustries

C.aworseningrelationshipbetweenlaborandmanagement

D.thedifferencebetweenadevelopedcountryandadevelopingcountry

2.Accordingtotheauthor,incoming25years,adevelopedcountryorindustry,inordertremaincompetitive,oughtto______.

A.reducethepercentageoftheblue-collarworkforce

B.preserveblue–collarjobsforinternationalcompetition

C.acceleratemotor–canmanufacturinginHenryFord’sstyle

D.solvetheproblemofunemployment

3.Americanpoliticiansandlaborleaderstendtodislike_____.

A.confusioninmanufacturingeconomy

B.anincreaseinblue–collarworkforce

C.internalcompetitioninmanufacturingproduction

D.adropintheblue–collarjobopportunities

4.Theword“prescription”in“aprescriptionforunemployment”maybetheequivalentto______

A.somethingrecommendedasmedicaltreatment

B.awaysuggestedtoovercomesomedifficulty

C.somemeasurestakeninadvance

D.adevicetodire

5.Thispassagemayhavebeenexceptedfrom________

A.amagazineaboutcapitalinvestment

B.anarticleonautomation

C.amotor-carmagazine

D.anarticleonglobaleconomy

Whyaretoday'soldermiddle-agedandelderlybecomingthenewwinners?

Thematterisnottobe____.

翻译：

如今，中国正步入老龄化社会，因此独生子女一代面临着巨大的工作和生活压力。中国政府开始适当调整计划生育政策，允许一些家庭在特殊情况下生育二胎。但调查显示，很多夫妻迫于不断加重的经济压力，放弃生育二胎。因此，要从根本上解决老龄化的问题不能依靠出生率的上升，最有效的办法是建立有效的社会保障制度。

PartIVTranslation

Satellitemassagershavethesameglobalcoverageassatellitetelephones,butcarrytextalone,whichcouldbeusefulforthosewithlaptopcomputers.(PassageFour)