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Asianeconomieswillcontinuetoexpandrapidlyinthenexttwoyearsonthebackofforeigninvestments,exportsanddomesticdemand,butwillnotbefreeofworries,accordingtoarecentsecuritiescompanyeconomicreport.Massiveinfrastructurespending,thebenefitsofpastinvestmentsandderegulationandgrowingregionaltradewillpushalongregionalgrowth.
ThereporttippedChina’sgrossdomesticproducttogrowby9.5percentin1996and10.5percentin1997,andHongKong’stogrowby4.3and5.0percent.Singapore’srealGDPwasforecasttogrowby7.6and7.4percent,Malaysia’sby8.6and8.1percent,Thailand’sby8.8and8.4percent,Indonesia’sby7.3and7.1percentandPhilippines’by5.6and5.8percent.
“However,allisnotrosy,”cautionedthereport,whichlistedoverheatingastheregion’sbiggestchallengeintheshorttermandskilled-laborshortagesinthelongrun.
Itcitedstrainsfromrapidgrowththathadbeguntostretchcurrentaccountdeficitsandspurinflationinsomeregionaleconomies,whichcouldpreventtheircentralbanksfromloweringinterestrates.
“Thisimpliesthateconomicvulnerabilitytounexpectedshockswillremainhigh,”thereportsaid,forecastingafurthertighteningofmonetarypolicyincountriessuchasthePhilippinesandMalaysia,andnosignificanteasinginThailand,IndonesiaandChina.
CrosbySecuritiesalsocitedmassivenewinvestmentprogramsgeneratedbydemandsoninfrastructuresuchaspower,telecommunicationsandtransportwhichhadfuelledover-heating.
ItsaidAsiawouldalsofaceabiggerchallengefromnewlyderegulatingeconomiesinEasternEuropewhichofferedlowercostsandbetter-educatedworkerstoforeigninvestors.
Asia’smainforeigninvestorsshould,however,continuetoexpandtheirpresenceintheregion,thesecuritieshousesaid,notingnewtrendsofintra-Asianinvestment.
Singaporeisshiftingitslowervalue-addeddiscdriveandelectronicsindustrytoMalaysia,whichinturnismovingsomeofitsgarment-makingandconsumerelectronicsmanufacturingtoIndonesiaandThailand.Thailand,MalaysiaandSingaporeareincreasinglyinvestinginVietNam,MyanmarandLaos.
“Asiawillbenefitfromthistrendinseveralways,”thereportsaid.
()1Asiaeconomywillcontinuetogrowbecauseof_____________.
A.foreigninvestmentB.demandsinAsiancountries.
C.exportD.alloftheabove
()2Inthenext2years,thehighesteconomicgrowthwillappearin____________.
A.SingaporeB.Thailand
C.HongKongD.China
()3Yearslater,theprobleminAsianeconomymaybe_________________.
A.toolittleinvestmentB.toomuchinvestment
C.notenoughqualifiedlaborsD.monetaryinstability
()4Accordingtothisreport,economicchangesinEastEuropeare___________.
A.harmfulB.challenging
C.helpfulD.useless
()5ThereportisabouttheprospectofAsianeconomy.
A.optimisticB.pessimistic
C.moreoptimisticthanpessimisticD.morepessimisticthanoptimistic
1There'sadimmerswitchinsidethesunthatcausesitsbrightnesstoriseandfallontimescalesofaround100,000years-exactlythesameperiodasbetweeniceagesonEarth.Sosaysaphysicistwhohascreatedacomputermodelofourstar'score.
2RobertEhrlichofGeorgeMasonUniversityinFairfax,Virginia,modelledtheeffectoftemperaturefluctuationsinthesun'sinterior.Accordingtothestandardview,thetemperatureofthesun'scoreisheldconstantbytheopposingpressuresofgravityandnuclearfusion.However,Ehrlichbelievedthatslightvariationsshouldbepossible.
3HetookashisstartingpointtheworkofAttilaGrandpierreoftheKonkolyObservatoryoftheHungarianAcademyofSciences.In2005,Grandpierreandacollaborator,Gáborágoston,calculatedthatmagneticfieldsinthesun'scorecouldproducesmallinstabilitiesinthesolarplasma.Theseinstabilitieswouldinducelocalisedoscillationsintemperature.
4Ehrlich'smodelshowsthatwhilstmostoftheseoscillationscanceleachotherout,somereinforceoneanotherandbecomelong-livedtemperaturevariations.Thefavouredfrequenciesallowthesun'scoretemperaturetooscillatearounditsaveragetemperatureof13.6millionkelvinincycleslastingeither100,000or41,000years.Ehrlichsaysthatrandominteractionswithinthesun'smagneticfieldcouldflipthefluctuationsfromonecyclelengthtotheother.
5ThesetwotimescalesareinstantlyrecognisabletoanyonefamiliarwithEarth'siceages:forthepastmillionyears,iceageshaveoccurredroughlyevery100,000years.Beforethat,theyoccurredroughlyevery41,000years.
6MostscientistsbelievethattheiceagesaretheresultofsubtlechangesinEarth'sorbit,knownastheMilankovitchcycles.OnesuchcycledescribesthewayEarth'sorbitgraduallychangesshapefromacircletoaslightellipseandbackagainroughlyevery100,000years.ThetheorysaysthisalterstheamountofsolarradiationthatEarthreceives,triggeringtheiceages.However,apersistentproblemwiththistheoryhasbeenitsinabilitytoexplainwhytheiceageschangedfrequencyamillionyearsago.
7"InMilankovitch,thereiscertainlynogoodideawhythefrequencyshouldchangefromonetoanother,"saysNeilEdwards,aclimatologistattheOpenUniversityinMiltonKeynes,UK.NoristhetransitionproblemtheonlyonetheMilankovitchtheoryfaces.EhrlichandothercriticsclaimthatthetemperaturevariationscausedbyMilankovitchcyclesaresimplynotbigenoughtodriveiceages.
8However,EdwardsbelievesthesmallchangesinsolarheatingproducedbyMilankovitchcyclesarethenamplifiedbyfeedbackmechanismsonEarth.Forexample,ifseaicebeginstoformbecauseofaslightcooling,carbondioxidethatwouldotherwisehavefounditswayintotheatmosphereaspartofthecarboncycleislockedintotheice.ThatweakensthegreenhouseeffectandEarthgrowsevencolder.
9AccordingtoEdwards,thereisnolackofsuchmechanisms."Ifyouaddtheireffectstogether,thereismorethanenoughfeedbacktomakeMilankovitchwork,"hesays."Theproblemnowisidentifyingwhichmechanismsareatwork."ThisiswhyscientistslikeEdwardsarenotyetreadytogiveuponthecurrenttheory."Milankovitchcyclesgiveusiceagesroughlywhenweobservethemtohappen.Wecancalculatewhereweareinthecycleandcompareitwithobservation,"hesays."Ican'tseeanywayoftesting[Ehrlich's]ideatoseewhereweareinthetemperatureoscillation."
10Ehrlichconcedesthis."Ifthereisawaytotestthistheoryonthesun,Ican'tthinkofonethatispractical,"hesays.That'sbecausevariationover41,000to100,000yearsistoogradualtobeobserved.However,theremaybeawaytotestitinotherstars:reddwarfs.Theircoresaremuchsmallerthanthatofthesun,andsoEhrlichbelievesthattheoscillationperiodscouldbeshortenoughtobeobserved.Hehasyettocalculatethepreciseperiodortheextentofvariationinbrightnesstobeexpected.
11NigelWeiss,asolarphysicistattheUniversityofCambridge,isfarfromconvinced.HedescribesEhrlich'sclaimsas"utterlyimplausible".EhrlichcountersthatWeiss'sopinionisbasedonthestandardsolarmodel,whichfailstotakeintoaccountthemagneticinstabilitiesthatcausethetemperaturefluctuations.
Questions1-4
CompleteeachofthefollowingstatementswithOneorTwonamesofthescientistsfromtheboxbelow.
WritetheappropriatelettersA-Einboxes1-4onyouranswersheet.
A.AttilaGrandpierre
B.Gáborágoston
C.NeilEdwards
D.NigelWeiss
E.RobertEhrlich
1....claimsthereadimmerswitchinsidethesunthatcausesitsbrightnesstoriseandfallinperiodsaslongasthosebetweeniceagesonEarth.
2....calculatedthattheinternalsolarmagneticfieldscouldproduceinstabilitiesinthesolarplasma.
3....holdsthatMilankovitchcyclescaninducechangesinsolarheatingonEarthandthechangesareamplifiedonEarth.
4....doesn'tbelieveinEhrlich'sviewpointsatall.
Questions5-9
Dothefollowingstatementsagreewiththeinformationgiveninthereadingpassage?
Inboxes5-9onyouranswersheetwrite
TRUEifthestatementistrueaccordingtothepassage
FALSEifthestatementisfalseaccordingtothepassage
NOTGIVENiftheinformationisnotgiveninthepassage
5.Theiceageschangedfrequencyfrom100,000to41,000yearsamillionyearsago.
6.ThesoleproblemthattheMilankovitchtheorycannotsolveistoexplainwhytheiceagefrequencyshouldshiftfromonetoanother.
7.Carbondioxidecanbelockedartificiallyintoseaicetoeliminatethegreenhouseeffect.
8.SomescientistsarenotreadytogiveuptheMilankovitchtheorythoughtheyhaven'tfiguredoutwhichmechanismsamplifythechangesinsolarheating.
9.BothEdwardsandEhrlichbelievethatthereisnopracticalwaytotestwhenthesolartemperatureoscillationbeginsandwhenends.
Questions10-14
Completethenotesbelow.
ChooseonesuitablewordfromtheReadingPassageaboveforeachanswer.
Writeyouranswersinboxes10-14onyouranswersheet.
Thestandardviewassumesthattheopposingpressuresofgravityandnuclearfusionsholdthetemperature...10...inthesun'sinterior,buttheslightchangesintheearth's...11...alterthetemperatureontheearthandcauseiceagesevery100,000years.ABritishscientist,however,challengesthisviewbyclaimingthattheinternalsolarmagnetic...12...caninducethetemperatureoscillationsinthesun'sinterior.Thesun'scoretemperatureoscillatesarounditsaveragetemperaturein...13...lastingeither100,000or41,000years.Andthe...14...interactionswithinthesun'smagneticfieldcouldflipthefluctuationsfromonecyclelengthtotheother,whichexplainswhytheiceageschangedfrequencyamillionyearsago.
