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德尔菲预测法。

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德尔菲预测法 : 是采用同时向多位专家发函征询预测意见,并经过多轮反馈而使预测意见趋于一致的预测方法。这种方法不是采用专家会议的形式,而是采用向专家发函调查,这样就能有充足的时间让专家们对所预测的问题提出设想,然后将他们的设想进行整理、归纳,匿名反馈给各位专家,再次征求意见,回收后再加以综 合、反馈。这样经过多次反复,最后就能得到一个比较一致的、可靠性较大的预测意见。

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Rogue theory of smell gets a boost 1.A controversial theory of how we smell, which claims that our fine sense of odour depends on quantum mechanics, has been given the thumbs up by a team of physicists. 2.Calculations by researchers at University College London (UCL) show that the idea that we smell odour molecules by sensing their molecular vibrations makes sense in terms of the physics involved. 3.That's still some way from proving that the theory, proposed in the mid-1990s by biophysicist Luca Turin, is correct.But it should make other scientists take the idea more seriously. 4."This is a big step forward," says Turin, who has now set up his own perfume company Flexitral in Virginia.He says that since he published his theory, "it has been ignored rather than criticized." 5.Most scientists have assumed that our sense of smell depends on receptors in the nose detecting the shape of incoming molecules, which triggers a signal to the brain.This molecular 'lock and key' process is thought to lie behind a wide range of the body's detection systems: it is how some parts of the immune system recognise invaders, for example, and how the tongue recognizes some tastes. 6.But Turin argued that smell doesn't seem to fit this picture very well.Molecules that look almost identical can smell very different — such as alcohols, which smell like spirits, and thiols, which smell like rotten eggs.And molecules with very different structures can smell similar.Most strikingly, some molecules can smell different — to animals, if not necessarily to humans — simply because they contain different isotopes (atoms that are chemically identical but have a different mass). 7.Turin's explanation for these smelly facts invokes the idea that the smell signal in olfactory receptor proteins is triggered not by an odour molecule's shape, but by its vibrations, which can enourage an electron to jump between two parts of the receptor in a quantum-mechanical process called tunnelling.This electron movement could initiate the smell signal being sent to the brain. 8.This would explain why isotopes can smell different: their vibration frequencies are changed if the atoms are heavier.Turin's mechanism, says Marshall Stoneham of the UCL team, is more like swipe-card identification than a key fitting a lock. 9.Vibration-assisted electron tunnelling can undoubtedly occur — it is used in an experimental technique for measuring molecular vibrations."The question is whether this is possible in the nose," says Stoneham's colleague, Andrew Horsfield. 10.Stoneham says that when he first heard about Turin's idea, while Turin was himself based at UCL, "I didn't believe it".But, he adds, "because it was an interesting idea, I thought I should prove it couldn't work.I did some simple calculations, and only then began to feel Luca could be right." Now Stoneham and his co-workers have done the job more thoroughly, in a paper soon to be published in Physical Review Letters. 11.The UCL team calculated the rates of electron hopping in a nose receptor that has an odorant molecule bound to it.This rate depends on various properties of the biomolecular system that are not known, but the researchers could estimate these parameters based on typical values for molecules of this sort. 12.The key issue is whether the hopping rate with the odorant in place is significantly greater than that without it.The calculations show that it is — which means that odour identification in this way seems theoretically possible. 13.But Horsfield stresses that that's different from a proof of Turin's idea."So far things look plausible, but we need proper experimental verification.We're beginning to think about what experiments could be performed." 14.Meanwhile, Turin is pressing ahead with his hypothesis."At Flexitral we have been designing odorants exclusively on the basis of their computed vibrations," he says."Our success rate at odorant discovery is two orders of magnitude better than the competition." At the very least, he is putting his money where his nose is. Questions 5-9 Complete the sentences below with words from the passage.Use NO MORE THAN THREE WORDS for each answer. 5.The hypothesis that we smell by sensing the molecular vibration was made by ______. 6.Turin's company is based in ______. 7.Most scientists believed that our nose works in the same way as our ______. 8.Different isotopes can smell different when ______ weigh differently. 9.According to Audrew Horsfield, it is still to be proved that ______ could really occur in human nose.
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Selling Digital Music without Copy-protection Makes Sense A. It was uncharacteristically low-key for the industry’s greatest showman. But the essay published this week by Steve Jobs, the boss of Apple, on his firm’s website under the unassuming title “Thoughts on Music” has nonetheless provoked a vigorous debate about the future of digital music, which Apple dominates with its iPod music-player and iTunes music-store. At issue is “digital rights management” (DRM)—the technology guarding downloaded music against theft. Since there is no common standard for DRM, it also has the side-effect that songs purchased for one type of music-player may not work on another. Apple’s DRM system, called FairPlay, is the most widespread. So it came as a surprise when Mr. Jobs called for DRM for digital music to be abolished. B. This is a change of tack for Apple. It has come under fire from European regulators who claim that its refusal to license FairPlay to other firms has “locked in” customers. Since music from the iTunes store cannot be played on non-iPod music-players (at least not without a lot of fiddling), any iTunes buyer will be deterred from switching to a device made by a rival firm, such as Sony or Microsoft. When French lawmakers drafted a bill last year compelling Apple to open up FairPlay to rivals, the company warned of “state-sponsored piracy”. Only DRM, it implied, could keep the pirates at bay. C. This week Mr. Jobs gave another explanation for his former defence of DRM: the record companies made him do it. They would make their music available to the iTunes store only if Apple agreed to protect it using DRM. They can still withdraw their catalogues if the DRM system is compromised. Apple cannot license FairPlay to others, says Mr Jobs, because it would depend on them to produce security fixes promptly. 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