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简述德尔菲法 (专家意见法 )的基本过程。

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正确答案:

过程:先由各个专家针对所预测事物的未来发展趋势独立提出自己的估计和假设,经企业分析人员审查、修改、提出意见,再发回到各位专家手中,这时专家们根据综合的预测结果,参考她人意见修改自己的预测,即开始下一轮估计。如此重复,直到各专家对未来的预测基本一致为止。

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Passage2

Questions6to10arebasedonthefollowingpassage:

Whenaluminumwasfirstproducedaboutahundredandfiftyyearsago,itwassodifficulttoseparateformtheoresinwhichitwasfoundthatitspricewashigherthanthatofgold.Thepriceremainedhighuntilanewprocesswasdiscoveredforrefiningthemetalwiththeaidofelectricityapproximatelythreequartersofacenturylater.Thenewmethodwassomuchcheaperthataluminumbecausepracticalformanypurposes,oneofwhichwasmakingpotsandpans.

Aluminumislightweight,rustproofandeasilyshapedintodifferentforms.Bymixingitwithothermetals,scientistshavebeenabletoproduceavarietyofalloys,someofwhichhavethestrengthofsteelbutweighonlyonethirdasmuch.

Today,theusesofaluminumareinnumerable.Perhapsitsmostimportantuseisintransportation.Aluminumisfoundintheengineofautomobiles,inthehullsofboats.Itisalsousedinmanypartsofairplanes.Infact,thehuge“airbus”planeswouldprobablyneverhavebeenproducedifaluminumdidnotexist.Bymakingvehicleslighterinweightaluminumhasgreatlyreducedtheamountoffuelneededtomovethem,Aluminumisalsobeingusedextensivelyinthebuildingindustryinsomecountries.

Sincealuminumissuchaversatile(多用的)metal,itisfortunatethatbauxite(铝土矿),whichisoneofitschiefsources,isalsooneoftheearth’smostplentifulsubstances.Asthesourceofaluminumisalmostinexhaustible,wecanexpectthatmoreandmoreuseswillbefoundforthisversatilemetal.

6.Thepriceofaluminumwassharplyreducedwhenpeoplediscoveredanewrefiningprocesswiththeaidof.

A.windB.solarenergyC.hydraulicpowerD.electricity

7.Aluminumis.

A.lightweight,rustproofbutnoteasilyshapedintodifferentforms

B.heavyweight,rustproofandeasilyshapedintodifferentforms

C.lightweight,rustproofandeasilyshapedintodifferentforms

D.lightweightandeasilyshapedintodifferentformsbutitiseasytobecomerusty

8.WhichofthefollowingisNOTtrue?

A.Aluminumiswidelyusedintransportation.

B.Aluminumisalsousedinmanypartsofairplanes.

C.Aluminumisbeingusedextensivelyinthebuildingindustry.

D.Aluminumisnotusedinitspureform.

9.Aluminumisfoundonearthmostlyintheformof.

A.puremetalB.bauxiteC.goldD.liquid

10.Whatisthepassagetalkingabout?

A.Thefeaturesofaluminumanditsfunctions.B.Theprocessofaluminum.

C.Thediscoveryofaluminum.D.Thepromisingfutureofaluminum.

Hesetupinbusiness____hisownandwasverysuccessful.

Modern()perhapscausesmoreproblemsthanitsolves.

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Theareagets________________(年降雨量不足五厘米).

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