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当前位置：考试网  > 试卷库  > 学历类  > 自考  > 自考专业(营销)  >  简述德尔菲法 (专家意见法 )的基本过程。
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简述德尔菲法 (专家意见法 )的基本过程。

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正确答案：

过程：先由各个专家针对所预测事物的未来发展趋势独立提出自己的估计和假设，经企业分析人员审查、修改、提出意见，再发回到各位专家手中，这时专家们根据综合的预测结果，参考她人意见修改自己的预测，即开始下一轮估计。如此重复，直到各专家对未来的预测基本一致为止。

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Passage2

Questions6to10arebasedonthefollowingpassage:

Whenaluminumwasfirstproducedaboutahundredandfiftyyearsago,itwassodifficulttoseparateformtheoresinwhichitwasfoundthatitspricewashigherthanthatofgold.Thepriceremainedhighuntilanewprocesswasdiscoveredforrefiningthemetalwiththeaidofelectricityapproximatelythreequartersofacenturylater.Thenewmethodwassomuchcheaperthataluminumbecausepracticalformanypurposes,oneofwhichwasmakingpotsandpans.

Aluminumislightweight,rustproofandeasilyshapedintodifferentforms.Bymixingitwithothermetals,scientistshavebeenabletoproduceavarietyofalloys,someofwhichhavethestrengthofsteelbutweighonlyonethirdasmuch.

Today,theusesofaluminumareinnumerable.Perhapsitsmostimportantuseisintransportation.Aluminumisfoundintheengineofautomobiles,inthehullsofboats.Itisalsousedinmanypartsofairplanes.Infact,thehuge“airbus”planeswouldprobablyneverhavebeenproducedifaluminumdidnotexist.Bymakingvehicleslighterinweightaluminumhasgreatlyreducedtheamountoffuelneededtomovethem,Aluminumisalsobeingusedextensivelyinthebuildingindustryinsomecountries.

Sincealuminumissuchaversatile(多用的)metal,itisfortunatethatbauxite(铝土矿),whichisoneofitschiefsources,isalsooneoftheearth’smostplentifulsubstances.Asthesourceofaluminumisalmostinexhaustible,wecanexpectthatmoreandmoreuseswillbefoundforthisversatilemetal.

6.Thepriceofaluminumwassharplyreducedwhenpeoplediscoveredanewrefiningprocesswiththeaidof.

A.windB.solarenergyC.hydraulicpowerD.electricity

7.Aluminumis.

A.lightweight,rustproofbutnoteasilyshapedintodifferentforms

B.heavyweight,rustproofandeasilyshapedintodifferentforms

C.lightweight,rustproofandeasilyshapedintodifferentforms

D.lightweightandeasilyshapedintodifferentformsbutitiseasytobecomerusty

8.WhichofthefollowingisNOTtrue?

A.Aluminumiswidelyusedintransportation.

B.Aluminumisalsousedinmanypartsofairplanes.

C.Aluminumisbeingusedextensivelyinthebuildingindustry.

D.Aluminumisnotusedinitspureform.

9.Aluminumisfoundonearthmostlyintheformof.

A.puremetalB.bauxiteC.goldD.liquid

10.Whatisthepassagetalkingabout?

A.Thefeaturesofaluminumanditsfunctions.B.Theprocessofaluminum.

C.Thediscoveryofaluminum.D.Thepromisingfutureofaluminum.

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Hesetupinbusiness____hisownandwasverysuccessful.

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Modern（）perhapscausesmoreproblemsthanitsolves.

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翻译训练：地域特色文明

文明是多彩的，人类文明因多样才有交流互鉴的价值。文明是平等的，人类文明因平等才有交流互鉴的前提。文明是包容的，人类文明因包容才有交流互鉴的动力。

当今世界，人类生活在不同文化、种族、肤色、宗教和不同社会制度所组成的世界里，各国人民形成了你中有我、我中有你的命运共同体。应该推动不同文明相互尊重、和谐共处，让文明交流互鉴成为增进各国人民友谊的桥梁、推动人类社会进步的动力、维护世界和平的纽带。应该从不同文明中寻求智慧、汲取营养，为人们提供精神支撑和心灵慰藉，携手解决人类共同面临的各种挑战。

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Theareagets________________(年降雨量不足五厘米).

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