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抽样调查法

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正确答案:

抽样调查法是指从研究对象的全部单位中抽取一部分单位进行考察和分析, 并用这部分单位的数量特征去推断总体的数量特征的一种调查方法。

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1There'sadimmerswitchinsidethesunthatcausesitsbrightnesstoriseandfallontimescalesofaround100,000years-exactlythesameperiodasbetweeniceagesonEarth.Sosaysaphysicistwhohascreatedacomputermodelofourstar'score. 2RobertEhrlichofGeorgeMasonUniversityinFairfax,Virginia,modelledtheeffectoftemperaturefluctuationsinthesun'sinterior.Accordingtothestandardview,thetemperatureofthesun'scoreisheldconstantbytheopposingpressuresofgravityandnuclearfusion.However,Ehrlichbelievedthatslightvariationsshouldbepossible. 3HetookashisstartingpointtheworkofAttilaGrandpierreoftheKonkolyObservatoryoftheHungarianAcademyofSciences.In2005,Grandpierreandacollaborator,Gáborágoston,calculatedthatmagneticfieldsinthesun'scorecouldproducesmallinstabilitiesinthesolarplasma.Theseinstabilitieswouldinducelocalisedoscillationsintemperature. 4Ehrlich'smodelshowsthatwhilstmostoftheseoscillationscanceleachotherout,somereinforceoneanotherandbecomelong-livedtemperaturevariations.Thefavouredfrequenciesallowthesun'scoretemperaturetooscillatearounditsaveragetemperatureof13.6millionkelvinincycleslastingeither100,000or41,000years.Ehrlichsaysthatrandominteractionswithinthesun'smagneticfieldcouldflipthefluctuationsfromonecyclelengthtotheother. 5ThesetwotimescalesareinstantlyrecognisabletoanyonefamiliarwithEarth'siceages:forthepastmillionyears,iceageshaveoccurredroughlyevery100,000years.Beforethat,theyoccurredroughlyevery41,000years. 6MostscientistsbelievethattheiceagesaretheresultofsubtlechangesinEarth'sorbit,knownastheMilankovitchcycles.OnesuchcycledescribesthewayEarth'sorbitgraduallychangesshapefromacircletoaslightellipseandbackagainroughlyevery100,000years.ThetheorysaysthisalterstheamountofsolarradiationthatEarthreceives,triggeringtheiceages.However,apersistentproblemwiththistheoryhasbeenitsinabilitytoexplainwhytheiceageschangedfrequencyamillionyearsago. 7"InMilankovitch,thereiscertainlynogoodideawhythefrequencyshouldchangefromonetoanother,"saysNeilEdwards,aclimatologistattheOpenUniversityinMiltonKeynes,UK.NoristhetransitionproblemtheonlyonetheMilankovitchtheoryfaces.EhrlichandothercriticsclaimthatthetemperaturevariationscausedbyMilankovitchcyclesaresimplynotbigenoughtodriveiceages. 8However,EdwardsbelievesthesmallchangesinsolarheatingproducedbyMilankovitchcyclesarethenamplifiedbyfeedbackmechanismsonEarth.Forexample,ifseaicebeginstoformbecauseofaslightcooling,carbondioxidethatwouldotherwisehavefounditswayintotheatmosphereaspartofthecarboncycleislockedintotheice.ThatweakensthegreenhouseeffectandEarthgrowsevencolder. 9AccordingtoEdwards,thereisnolackofsuchmechanisms."Ifyouaddtheireffectstogether,thereismorethanenoughfeedbacktomakeMilankovitchwork,"hesays."Theproblemnowisidentifyingwhichmechanismsareatwork."ThisiswhyscientistslikeEdwardsarenotyetreadytogiveuponthecurrenttheory."Milankovitchcyclesgiveusiceagesroughlywhenweobservethemtohappen.Wecancalculatewhereweareinthecycleandcompareitwithobservation,"hesays."Ican'tseeanywayoftesting[Ehrlich's]ideatoseewhereweareinthetemperatureoscillation." 10Ehrlichconcedesthis."Ifthereisawaytotestthistheoryonthesun,Ican'tthinkofonethatispractical,"hesays.That'sbecausevariationover41,000to100,000yearsistoogradualtobeobserved.However,theremaybeawaytotestitinotherstars:reddwarfs.Theircoresaremuchsmallerthanthatofthesun,andsoEhrlichbelievesthattheoscillationperiodscouldbeshortenoughtobeobserved.Hehasyettocalculatethepreciseperiodortheextentofvariationinbrightnesstobeexpected. 11NigelWeiss,asolarphysicistattheUniversityofCambridge,isfarfromconvinced.HedescribesEhrlich'sclaimsas"utterlyimplausible".EhrlichcountersthatWeiss'sopinionisbasedonthestandardsolarmodel,whichfailstotakeintoaccountthemagneticinstabilitiesthatcausethetemperaturefluctuations. Questions1-4 CompleteeachofthefollowingstatementswithOneorTwonamesofthescientistsfromtheboxbelow. WritetheappropriatelettersA-Einboxes1-4onyouranswersheet. A.AttilaGrandpierre B.Gáborágoston C.NeilEdwards D.NigelWeiss E.RobertEhrlich 1....claimsthereadimmerswitchinsidethesunthatcausesitsbrightnesstoriseandfallinperiodsaslongasthosebetweeniceagesonEarth. 2....calculatedthattheinternalsolarmagneticfieldscouldproduceinstabilitiesinthesolarplasma. 3....holdsthatMilankovitchcyclescaninducechangesinsolarheatingonEarthandthechangesareamplifiedonEarth. 4....doesn'tbelieveinEhrlich'sviewpointsatall. Questions5-9 Dothefollowingstatementsagreewiththeinformationgiveninthereadingpassage? Inboxes5-9onyouranswersheetwrite TRUEifthestatementistrueaccordingtothepassage FALSEifthestatementisfalseaccordingtothepassage NOTGIVENiftheinformationisnotgiveninthepassage 5.Theiceageschangedfrequencyfrom100,000to41,000yearsamillionyearsago. 6.ThesoleproblemthattheMilankovitchtheorycannotsolveistoexplainwhytheiceagefrequencyshouldshiftfromonetoanother. 7.Carbondioxidecanbelockedartificiallyintoseaicetoeliminatethegreenhouseeffect. 8.SomescientistsarenotreadytogiveuptheMilankovitchtheorythoughtheyhaven'tfiguredoutwhichmechanismsamplifythechangesinsolarheating. 9.BothEdwardsandEhrlichbelievethatthereisnopracticalwaytotestwhenthesolartemperatureoscillationbeginsandwhenends. Questions10-14 Completethenotesbelow. ChooseonesuitablewordfromtheReadingPassageaboveforeachanswer. Writeyouranswersinboxes10-14onyouranswersheet. Thestandardviewassumesthattheopposingpressuresofgravityandnuclearfusionsholdthetemperature...10...inthesun'sinterior,buttheslightchangesintheearth's...11...alterthetemperatureontheearthandcauseiceagesevery100,000years.ABritishscientist,however,challengesthisviewbyclaimingthattheinternalsolarmagnetic...12...caninducethetemperatureoscillationsinthesun'sinterior.Thesun'scoretemperatureoscillatesarounditsaveragetemperaturein...13...lastingeither100,000or41,000years.Andthe...14...interactionswithinthesun'smagneticfieldcouldflipthefluctuationsfromonecyclelengthtotheother,whichexplainswhytheiceageschangedfrequencyamillionyearsago.
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