Wecanbeginourdiscussionof“populationasglobalissue”withwhatmostpersonsmeanwhentheydiscuss“thepopulationproblem”:toomanypeopleonearthandatoorapidincreaseinthenumberaddedeachyear.Thefactsarenotindispute,Itwasquiterighttoemploytheanalogythatlikeneddemographicgrowthto“along,thinpowderfusethatburnssteadilyandhaltinglyuntilitfinallyreachesthechargeandexplodes.”

Tounderstandthecurrentsituation,whichischaracterizedbyrapidincreasesinpopulation,itisnecessarytounderstandthehistoryofpopulationtrends.Rapidgrowthisacomparativelyrecentphenomenon.Lookingbackatthe8,000yearsofdemographichistory,wefindthatpopulationshavebeenvirtuallystableorgrowingveryslightlyformostofhumanhistory.Formostofourancestors,lifewashard,oftennasty,andveryshort.Therewashighfertilityinmostplaces,butthiswasusuallybalancedbyhighmortality.Formostofhumanhistory,itwasseldomthecasethatoneintenpersonswouldlivepastforty,whileinfancyandchildhoodwereespeciallyriskyperiods.Often,societieswereincleardangerofextinctionbecausedeathratescouldexceedtheirbirthrates.Thus,thepopulationproblemthroughoutmostofhistorywashowtopreventextinctionofthehumanrace.

Thispatternisimportanttonotice.Notonlydoesitputthecurrentproblemsofdemographicgrowthintoahistoricalperspective,butitsuggeststhatthecauseofrapidincreaseinpopulationinrecentyearsisnotasuddenenthusiasmformorechildren,butanimprovementintheconditionsthattraditionallyhavecausedhighmortality.

Demographichistorycanbedividedintotwomajorperiods:atimeoflong,slowgrowthwhichextendedfromabout8,000BC.tillapproximatelyAD.1650.Inthefirstperiodofsome9600years,thepopulationincreasedfromsome8millionto500millionin1650.Between1650andthepresent,thepopulationhasincreasedfrom500milliontomorethan4billion.Anditisestimatedthatbytheyear2000therewillbe6.2billionpeoplethroughouttheworld.Onewaytoappreciatethisdramaticdifferenceinsuchabstractnumbersistoreducethetimeframetosomethingthatismoremanageable.Between8000BCand1650,anaverageofonly50,000personswasbeingaddedannuallytotheworld’spopulationeachyear.Atpresent,thisnumberisaddedeverysixhours.Theincreaseisabout80,000,000personsannually.

1.Whichofthefollowingdemographicgrowthpatternismostsuitableforthelongthinpowderfuseanalogy?

A.Avirtuallystableorslightlydecreasingperiodandthenasuddenexplosionofpopulation.

B.Aslowgrowthforalongtimeandthenaperiodofrapid,dramaticincrease.

C.Toomanypeopleonearthandafewrapidincreaseinthenumberaddedeachyear.

D.Alongperiodwhendeathratesexceedsbirthratesandthenashortperiodwithhigherfertilityandlowermortality.

2.Duringthefirstperiodofdemographichistory,societieswereoftenindangerofextinctionbecause___.

A.onlyoneintenpersonscouldlivepast40.

B.therewashighermortalitythanfertilityinmostplaces.

C.itwastoodangeroustohavebabiesduetothepoorconditions.

D.ourancestorshadlittleenthusiasmformorechildren.

3.Whichstatementistrueaboutpopulationincrease?

A.Theremightbeanincreaseof2.2billionpersonsfromnowtotheyear2000.

B.About50,000babiesareborneverysixhoursatpresent.

C.Between8000BCandthepresent,thepopulationincreaseisabout80,000,000personseachyear.

D.Thepopulationincreasedfasterbetween8000BCand1650thanbetween1650andthepresent.

4.Theauthorofthepassageintendsto___.

A.warnpeopleagainstthepopulationexplosioninthenearfuture.

B.comparethedemographicgrowthpatterninthepastwiththatafter1650.

C.findoutthecauseforrapidincreaseinpopulationinrecentyears.

D.presentusaclearandcompletepictureofthedemographicgrowth.

5.Theword“demographic”inthefirstparagraphmeans___.

A.statisticsofhuman.

B.surroundingsstudy.

C.accumulationofhuman.

D.developmentofhuman.

Yesterdaywassucha____daywedecidedtogoforadrive.

Thefirstparagraphisintendedto________.

Theareagets________________(年降雨量不足五厘米).

Iftheoldmaximthatthecustomerisalwaysrightstillhasmeaning,thentheairlinesthatplytheworld’sbusiestairroutebetweenLondonandParishaveaflightontheirhands.

TheEurostartrainservicelinkingtheUKandFrenchcapitalsviatheChannelTunneliswinningcustomersinincreasingnumbers.InlateMay,itcarrieditsonemillionthpassenger,havingrunonlyalimitedservicebetweenLondon,ParisandBrusselssinceNovember1994,startingwithtwotrainsadayineachdirectiontoParisandBrussels.By1997,thecompanybelievesthatitwillbecarryingtenmillionpassengersayear,andcontinuetogrowfromthere.

FromJuly,EurostarstepsitsservicetoninetrainseachwaybetweenLondonandParis,andfivebetweenLondonandBrussels.Eachtraincarriesalmost800passengers,210oftheminfirstclass.

Theairlinesestimatethattheywillinitiallylosearound15%-20%oftheirLondon-ParistraffictotherailwaysonceEurostarstartsafullservicelaterthisyear(1995),with15trainsadayeachway.AsimilarservicewillstarttoBrussels.Thedamagewillbelimited,however,theairlinesbelieve,withpassengernumbersreturningtopreviouslevelswithintwotothreeyears.

Intheshortterm,thedamagecausedbythe1millionpeople-levelstravelingbetweenLondonandParisandBrusselsonEurostartrainsmeansthatsomeairservicesarealreadysuffering.Someofthemajorcarrierssaythattheirpassengernumbersaredownbylessthan5%andpointtotheirrivals-ParticularlyAirFrance-ashavingsufferedtheproblems.OntheBrusselsroute,therailwaycompanyhadlesssuccess,andtheairlinesreportanythingfromarounda5%droptonovisibledeclineintraffic.

Theairlines’optimismonreturningtrafficlevelsisbasedonhistoricalprecedent.BritishMidland,forexample,pointstoitsexperienceonHeathrowLeedsBradfordservicewhichsawpassengernumbersfoldby15%whenBritishRailelectrifiedandmodernizedtherailwaylinebetweenLondonandYorkshire.Twoyearslater,travelhadrisenbetweenthetwodestinationstothepointwheretheairlinewascarryingrecordnumbersofpassengers.

1.Britishairlinesconfideinthefactthat__.

A.theyaremorepowerfulthanotherEuropeanairlines.

B.theirtotallosswon’tgobeyondadropof5%passengers.

C.theirtrafficlevelswillreturnin2-3years.

D.travelingbyrailcannevercatchupwithtravelingbyair.

2.Theauthor’sattitudetowardsthedropofpassengersmaybedescribedas__.

A.worried.B.delightedC.puzzled.D.unrivaled.

3.Inthepassage,BritishRail(Para6)ismentionedto__.

A.provideacomparisonwithEurostar.

B.supporttheairlines’optimism.

C.provetheinevitabledropofairpassengers.

D.callforelectrificationandmodernizationoftherailway.

4.Therailway’sBrusselsrouteisbroughtforthtoshowthat__.

A.theEurostartrainserviceisnotdoinggoodbusiness.

B.theairlinescanwellcompetewiththerailway.

C.theEurostartrainserviceonlycausedlittledamage.

D.onlysomeairlines,suchasAirFrance,aresuffering.

5.Thepassageistakenfromthefirstofanessay,fromwhichwemaywellpredictthatinthefollowingparttheauthorisgoingto__.

A.praisetheairlines’clear-mindedness.

B.warntheairlinesofhigh-speedrailservices.

C.proposeareductionofLondon/Parisflights.

D.advisetheairlinestofollowBritishMidlandastheirmodel.